Rising Air Coastal Air Temperatures Across Antarctica Threaten Ice Shelves

Scientific Reports, October 1

Heatwaves are projected to double in frequency in West Antarctica and triple in East Antarctica by the end of the century, even under a moderate emissions scenario. This warming may be particularly pronounced along the coasts of Antarctica, where air temperatures are already approaching the melting point of 0°C; and where increasingly warm summer conditions have led to occasional widespread surface melt. In the Antarctic Peninsula, the formation of surface meltwater ponds has accelerated glacier discharge into the ocean and weakened ice shelves, filling crevasses with meltwater and destabilizing them. This process, referred to as hydrofracturing, was the leading mechanism in the collapse of the Larsen A and Larsen B ice shelves in the past few decades. If current temperature rise continues, the Larsen C, Wilkins, and Abbot ice shelves may become destabilized within the next several decades; and additional larger ice shelves elsewhere on Antarctica may begin to be threatened as well.

Antarctica’s ice shelves play a critical role in stabilizing the ice sheet, especially in West Antarctica, preventing ice sheet mass loss and related sea-level rise. Their progressive loss with rising temperatures may lead to irreversible global sea-level rise.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-98619-z