Surface Melt and Runoff at Higher Temperatures Increases Chance of Antarctic Ice Shelf Collapse

Geophysical Research Letters, April 8

Loss of Antarctic ice shelves – projections of ice off the main Antarctic Ice Sheet — will lead to potentially rapid sea-level rise, not from the ice shelves themselves, but because their loss may lead to cascading movement and/or collapse of the main ice sheet into the ocean, especially in West Antarctica. This study found that increased surface melt and runoff on major existing ice shelves due to rising temperatures will heighten their vulnerability to fracturing and collapse, driving much of Antarctica into a state of net surface ice loss. At 4°C, 34% of all ice shelves — including the Larsen C, Wilkins, Pine Island and Shackleton ice shelves – will be at increased risk of destabilization. Limiting warming to maximum 2°C reduced the number of at-risk ice shelves to 14-18%. Authors emphasize the importance of preventing overshoot of 2°C to reduce the risk of ice-shelf collapse and resulting long-term sea-level rise.

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1501/2021/

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