Nature, 29 October 2025
Southern Ocean warming could lead to 60% of Antarctic ice shelves disappearing by 2300 under a very high emissions scenario, but remaining below 2°C would allow nearly all ice shelves to remain stable and whole. This study forecasts the long-term health of the floating margins of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Rising ocean temperatures increase the flow of warm water under ice shelves, causing them to thin and break apart. The loss of these ice shelves would remove the natural brake that currently holds back vast portions of the Antarctic ice sheet, paving the way for potentially up to 10 meters of sea-level rise over coming centuries.
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