Although several southern glaciers on Svalbard have retreated significantly in recent decades, the amount of ice overall has remained the same or shown very slight gains through 2018. However, over the next forty years the average mass of Svalbard glaciers is anticipated to enter a phase of accelerating decline. This pattern held for both medium emissions (equivalent to today’s Paris commitments, reaching nearly 3°C by 2100) and high emissions (4.5°C by 2100); with loss most extreme in the southern portion of the Svalbard archipelago. The snow season will also shorten, with more rain events; and the combined runoff from glaciers and land is expected to more than double by 2060. The study did not assess low emissions scenarios keeping temperatures close to 1.5°C; but fits a pattern of extensive glacier loss at temperatures above 2°C, especially at the mid-latitudes; with Svalbard’s pattern of projected loss similar to those projected for Iceland, despite its relatively higher latitude (74° to 81°N). Indeed Svalbard currently appears to be the fastest warming place on Earth, at 6 to 7 times the global average.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-glaciology/article/accelerating-future-mass-loss-of-svalbard-glaciers-from-a-multimodel-ensemble/22214FDA4311FB4B21691CAAB11D7EF2
艾米·印第克整理。.