Arctic Infrastructure at Increased Risk of Ground Instability from Permafrost Thaw

Advances in Climate Change Research, 5 June 2025

Ground slumping, erosion and other hazards resulting from permafrost thaw pose serious threats to livelihoods and infrastructure in Arctic communities. This study provides a hazard risk assessment of ground instability due to permafrost thaw between 2000-2020 in the circumpolar Arctic, which includes latitudes 40°N and above. They found that 40% of permafrost in the circumpolar Arctic had “high and very high” susceptibility to ground collapse, and an additional 14% of permafrost was in medium-susceptibility regions. The vulnerability of permafrost to ground collapse was found by assessing the interaction between the amount of ice in the ground and the number of days with temperatures above freezing each year. The study determined that more than 2.7 million people, 200 km² of buildings, and 110,000 km of roads in the circumpolar Arctic are currently at risk from permafrost thaw. Monitoring present and future ground stability alongside strengthened mitigation and adaptation measures is critical for communities in permafrost regions.

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