Extreme Rainfall Shapes Permafrost Thaw and Climate Feedbacks

Nature Communications, 26 February 2026

Extreme rainfall in permafrost regions alters soil temperature not only near the surface but also deep underground, increasing thaw and climate feedbacks. Across 131 sites in the Northern Hemisphere, monitoring equipment found that intense periods of rainfall cooled near-surface soils, but warmed deeper layers. The impacts of extreme rainfall also vary based on regional climate, vegetation, and soil conditions. For example, permafrost experiences stronger rainfall-driven cooling in humid regions, while more rapid warming occurs in arid regions with shrub-dominated landscapes and high ground ice content. Including extreme rainfall in future climate projections helps improve predictions of permafrost thaw, guide adaptation strategies, and better anticipate related impacts on ecosystems and global climate.

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