Increasing Summer Rainfall and Rain-on-Snow Events in Greenland

JGR Atmospheres, 2 March 2026

Rain-on-snow events in Greenland have dramatically increased in frequency, size and intensity since the 1940s, with particularly rapid growth over the past four decades. In summer, an increasing proportion of precipitation falls as rain, which melts snow and leaves ice unprotected, leading to further melt. Rising global temperatures also impact weather circulation patterns. The largest and most intense rain-on-snow events occur when unusually strong southerly winds transport moisture and heat polewards. 10-20% of these wind anomalies are categorized as atmospheric rivers – corridors of particularly intense moisture transport. Atmospheric rivers making landfall in Greenland increase the likelihood of rainfall by roughly tenfold on its east coast, and thirtyfold on the western coast. These results give a clearer picture of how warming and increased rainfall change the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet by reducing snow accumulation, increasing melt, and skewing the balance needed to sustain a healthy ice sheet.

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