Heightened Risk of Episodic Flooding and Water Shortages in the Himalayan Region

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, February 2

Glacier melt and meltwater run-off in the Himalayan region will likely peak in the next few decades (around 2050 under a medium emissions scenario) and then decline as the glaciers shrink. Glaciers in nearly all this region have seen accelerating rates of ice loss for the past several decades, with the exception of the relatively stable Karakoram mountain glaciers on their western edge. Under high emissions scenarios, only 57% of even the Karakoram, and 16% of Himalayan glaciers are expected to survive until 2100.  Under low emissions consistent with 1.5°C, these percentages dramatically rise to 83% and 52%, respectively. Elevated levels of glacier loss will make water flow more extreme and unpredictable throughout the region, increasing the risk of flooding and water shortages. Authors make it abundantly clear that following a low emissions scenario is imperative for the millions of people who live downstream and depend on these glacial water towers.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-020-00124-w

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