Heightened Risk of Water Stress in the Himalayas Under High Emissions Scenarios

Advancing Earth and Space Science, January 19

The response of Himalayan rivers to climate change is complex due to multiple competing factors: snowfall and snowmelt; rainfall; and glacier melt. This study focused on 5 river basins in the Central Himalayas, and found that snowmelt contributions to river flows will likely decrease by 2100 under both medium and high emissions scenarios. Glacier melt on the other hand would temporarily increase due to rising temperatures, between 15‐70%; before rapidly decreasing due to the disappearance of many glaciers after 2050. Increasing rainfall precipitation could compensate for some of the loss of water from snow and ice, but will often occur at different times than today’s contributions from snow and glacier melt, leading to water surplus and flooding, or water deficiency at different times throughout the year. Authors emphasize that a warming climate threatens the security of more than one billion people who rely on reliable water supplies from these Himalayan rivers.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020WR027589

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