Increasing Methane Emissions From Northern Arctic Wetlands and Lakes

Nature Climate Change, 28 August 2025

Methane emissions from boreal-Arctic wetlands and lakes will increase by one third by 2100 with even moderate warming, with small and mid-sized peatland lakes the largest contributors. Rising temperatures and resulting permafrost thaw will drive this spike in methane released into the atmosphere, which occurs when thawing occurs under wet conditions (CO2 is released by thawed permafrost under dry conditions). Warming lengthens the growing season and boosts wetland emissions by 12%, while permafrost thaw also reshapes wetland and lake areas, increasing their permeability to water; leading to additional thaw and methane release. In some coastal tundra regions, permafrost thaw can reduce methane emissions as they transition into permafrost bogs, which hold carbon. At the same time however, the loss of permafrost bogs in boreal regions results in higher emissions. Under high emissions, permafrost thaw also favors lake expansion, further increasing the amount of methane released and highlighting the importance of emissions reductions to limit cascading changes across the Arctic landscape.

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