New Projections Show Extreme Glacier Loss Already at 2°C

Science, 29 May 2025

An international study finds that glaciers are even more sensitive to global warming than previously estimated, with only 24% of present-day glacier mass remaining if the world warms to 2.7°C, the trajectory set by current climate policies. In contrast, limiting warming to 1.5°C would preserve 54% of glacier mass. These figures however are global, skewed mostly by the very large glaciers around Antarctica and Greenland. The glacier regions important to human communities are even more sensitive, with several losing nearly all ice at 2°C. This includes the glaciers of the European Alps, the Rockies of the Western U.S. and Canada, and Iceland, with only 10-15% of their 2020 ice levels remaining at 2°C sustained warming. Most hard-hit would be Scandinavia, with no glacier ice remaining at 2°C at all. All four of these regions are committed to losing at least half their ice at or below 1°C; starkly mirroring a paper released last week setting the safe margin for Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets at or below that same 1°C level. Even the Hindu Kush Himalaya, where glaciers feed river basins supporting 2 billion people, show only 25% of 2020 ice remaining at 2°C. Staying close to 1.5°C on the other hand preserves at least some glacier ice in all regions, with 20-30% remaining in the four most sensitive regions and 40-45% in the Himalayas and Caucuses, stressing the growing urgency of the 1.5°C temperature goal and rapid decarbonization to achieve it.

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