Projections of Greenland Ice Sheet Loss by 2100 Using CMIP6 Models for IPCC AR6

The Cryosphere, February 26

The contribution of Greenland to global sea level rise by 2100 can be as low as 20 mm, and as high as 160 mm (16 cm), depending on whether we follow low or high emissions pathways during the rest of this century; based on modeling from the new “ISMIP6” effort.  This work is based on the CMIP6 earth systems models developed for the next IPCC Assessment Report, AR6, Part 1 of which will be released in August of this year.  The study also finds CMIP6-based models produce larger ice sheet retreat than their earlier CMIP5 counterparts. Low-emission scenarios in the future drastically reduce the ice mass loss.  The study also found that most ice loss during this period would come from atmospheric warming causing greater melt and calving at the ice sheet margins, rather than from ocean warming.  Greenland’s ice sheet is currently losing mass at six times the rate of about 1990.

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1015/2021/

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