Returning Closer to 1°C or Below is Essential for Polar Ice Sheets

Nature Communications, 20 May 2025

A study by four senior IPCC authors presents strong evidence that the Paris Agreement’s lower temperature limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is too high to prevent significant sea-level rise from Antarctica and Greenland. Even current warming levels at 1.2°C, if sustained, will likely lead to several meters of sea-level rise over coming centuries, resulting in extensive loss and damage to coastal populations and challenging the implementation of adaptation measures. Currently, around 230 million people live within just one meter of sea level; melting ice represents an existential threat to those communities as well as several low-lying nations. To avoid this future, global mean temperature must return closer to 1°C or below as soon as possible through strong an immediate cuts in greenhouse gas pollution to prevent (in IPCC terminology) “slow-onset, high-impact” losses from both polar ice sheets.

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