High-Risk Coastal Cities and Regions Mapped as Especially Vulnerable to Sea-Level Rise

Nature Climate Change, 2 March 2023

This study measures natural variations in local sea level and finds that future sea-level rise hotspots will appear in western tropical Pacific Islands, the Western Indian Ocean, and six major Southeast Asian megacities: Chennai, Kolkata, Yangon, Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, and Manila. Researchers predict that these regions will face especially significant risks by the end of the century under a high emissions scenario. Daily weather, multi-decadal climate patterns, and recurring events such as El Niño all play an important role in determining the vulnerability of certain coastlines to sea level rise. Together, these three factors could increase sea level rise in some locations by 30% higher than what would result from climate change alone, increasing the risk of extreme flooding and threatening millions more in these vulnerable regions. For example, coastal flooding in Manila will likely occur eighteen times more often by 2100 based solely on climate change, but with the combined effects of these regional factors they would become ninety-six times more frequent. The devastating and disproportionate effects of climate change underscore the importance of supporting coastal regions in the development of adaptation strategies and especially, reducing emissions to limit sea-level rise to stay within limits of adaptation.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01603-w