Thawing Permafrost Increases Flood and Landslide Risks in the Western Himalaya

NPJ Natural Hazards, 8 May 2026

Rapid warming increases permafrost thaw and the risk of dangerous floods, landslides, and collapsing mountain slopes in the western Himalaya, placing downstream communities and infrastructure at growing risk. The study found that rising temperatures are destabilizing high mountain terrain in India’s Kinnaur district and creating conditions that could trigger chains of disasters, including avalanches or landslides that spill into glacier lakes and produce destructive flooding downstream. Researchers identified seven glacier lakes located in areas where frozen ground is likely thawing, with Kashang Lake highlighted as one of the most dangerous because of nearby towns, roads, and hydropower facilities. Major flooding from the lake could reach downstream infrastructure in as little as 16 minutes, leaving very limited time for emergency warning or evacuation. The lake has expanded dramatically since the 1970s, while heavy rainfall and extreme weather events in the region have also become more common, further increasing the likelihood of future disaster.

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