Increasingly Unpredictable River Floods in Indus River Basin

Communications Earth & Environment, 14 May 2026

River floods in the upper Indus basin are projected to become more frequent, intense, and unpredictable through 2100, with the frequency of critically high water levels at Pakistan’s Tarbela Dam expected to nearly triple by the end of the century. This study shows that although heavier rainfall will drive much of the increase in flooding, melting snow and glaciers could still contribute more than 70% of floodwater during the largest flood events. Earlier seasonal snow melt is also expected to shift flood peaks earlier in the year and cause rivers to rise more rapidly, reducing the time available for warning and emergency response. Downstream exposure is projected to rise substantially by 2100, with 6 times more people exposed to flooding risks and 28 times more Gross Domestic Product (GDP) vulnerable to loss. These combined changes threaten both dam safety and downstream communities in one of the world’s most glacier-fed river systems.

Papper