Increased Upwelling of Warmer Deep Ocean Waters Can Increase East Antarctic Ice Loss with Both Medium and High Emissions

Nature Communications, 1 April 2023

Increased warm water upwelling along the edges of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) has the potential to increase ice loss and resulting sea-level rise from the EAIS over the next 200 years, especially in the most vulnerable sections of the ice sheet. In addition to a general warming of the atmosphere and ocean, global heating has the potential to shift the water mass in contact with Antarctic ice shelves from the relatively cool shelf water seen today, to a warmer regime dominated by warmer water from the deeper ocean. This could lead to a 4X increase in the amount of ice lost in both medium- and high-emissions scenarios. The authors do not believe intrusion by these warm deep waters would occur across the entirety of East Antarctica (in the worst-case scenario), but the possibility of increased warm water contact (particularly in areas of high risk, such as George V Land) may cause a larger contribution to sea level rise from East Antarctica over the next couple of hundred years, even with medium emissions scenarios. The findings underscore the increased risk of higher sea-level rise even under more “moderate” emissions.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-37553-2