New IPCC Models Double SLR Estimates from Greenland by 2100 with High Emissions

Nature Communications, December 15

New CMIP6 models developed for the sixth IPCC Assessment Report (AR6) show that surface melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet alone could contribute a total of 18 cm to sea-level rise under high emissions by 2100, nearly double the amount anticipated by CMIP5. These new models better include the Arctic’s greater warming from CO2 emissions, increasing the estimate of temperature rise in the region by an additional 1.3°C in 2100 with high emissions. Greenland will lose more mass under all scenarios with CMIP6 compared to CMIP5, and the differences between the new scenarios are significant: keeping temperatures below 2°C will reduce global sea level rise from Greenland by more than half when compared to the high-emissions scenario. The authors therefore urged rapid policy action to curb global carbon emissions.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20011-8

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