Low Emissions Can Preserve Central Arctic Sea Ice: But High Emissions Causes Ice-free Regions Even in Winter, with Negative Global Impacts

Geophysical Research Letters, December 6
 

Under the new high emissions scenarios developed for IPCC AR6, accelerating sea ice loss will continue to take place both in summer and in winter across the Arctic, with the Barents Sea becoming the first sea-ice-free region in winter as well as summer before the end of the century. The models used in this study, CMIP6, perform better in estimating the sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to CO2 emissions, and show that even under low (1.5°C) emissions scenarios, all Arctic continental shelf waters will be ice-free during the summer before 2100. In the Central Arctic however, sea ice loss could stabilize around 2060 under a 1.5°C emissions scenario, preserving 20% of sea ice cover and its cooling impact on the climate system. Loss of Arctic sea ice impacts weather in the Arctic as well as lower latitudes, such as greater and longer extreme weather events in Europe and North America.  It also affects ocean circulation and marine ecosystems in lower latitudes.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL090825