Nature Communications, 5 December 2025
Very high emissions will trigger large-scale Antarctic ice sheet retreat over coming centuries, while net-zero emissions well before 2100 would strongly reduce multi-centennial ice loss. This study combines ice sheet models and accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty, grounding them in historical observations to more accurately estimate future sea-level rise through 2300. Although differences in sea-level rise between emission scenarios are small before 2100, these pathways diverge sharply after. Under very high emissions, Antarctic ice loss becomes self-sustaining, resulting in up to 6 meters of sea-level rise by 2300, with collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet virtually certain. This scenario would also lead to long-term ice retreat and sea-level rise from East Antarctica. Under low emissions, Antarctica’s contribution to sea-level rise is much smaller, up to 1.7 meters by 2300, though significant losses will still occur. While some sea-level rise from Antarctica is already locked in by today’s temperatures, rapid and sustained emissions reductions can greatly limit the most extreme and irreversible losses that will play out over coming centuries. (Note: for a presentation of some of the findings from this paper, see the COP30 video noted below.)
By Science Writing Intern Haily Landrigan, Global Outreach Director Amy Imdieke, and ICCI Director Pam Pearson.
Published Jan. 9, 2026 Updated Jan. 9, 2026 8:41 pm
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