Current Arctic Warming Closer to Past Abrupt Climate Events than Models

Nature, July 29

Over the past 40 years, the rate of change in large portions of the Arctic appears comparable to past rapid warming events, going back to the last interglacial period as reflected in this analysis of Greenland ice cores. These past warming events were typically characterized by warming rates of 1-2°C per decade on Greenland. This seems to indicate that high-emissions scenarios, such as RCP8.5 may underestimate the pace and extent of warming in polar regions; and the authors conclude that we must implement mitigation strategies in line with Paris Agreement targets to avoid risks of additional abrupt climate change in the Arctic.

Compiled by Amy Imdieke