Frontiers in Environmental Science, 29 June 2022
In this week’s Capsules, we wanted to highlight an important “consensus paper” from earlier this summer on permafrost; the local and global impacts of permafrost thaw; and the need to reduce fossil fuel emissions for its preservation. The “permafrost domain” is home to tens of millions of people, including diverse indigenous and immigrant cultures that depend on, and sustain these globally-significant ecosystems. Surface temperatures here have risen two to four times the global average, due in part to accelerated snow and ice loss. Thawing permafrost releases carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere for perhaps hundreds of years post-thaw: these emissions further intensify warming, and create the need for negative emissions for some time after anthropogenic emissions (hopefully) cease. Loss of permafrost therefore threatens climate stability, biodiversity and human life across the world.
The paper, which counts many of the world’s leading permafrost researchers among its 33 co-authors, identified several key messages:
It is not too late to prevent future permafrost loss. Under a low emissions scenario, permafrost could follow a pathway towards recovery and conservation rather than locking humanity into a future of loss and degradation. High emissions in contrast will accelerate permafrost thaw, increasing its vulnerability to sudden collapse, erosion, and devastating infrastructure damage across much of the permafrost domain.
Urgent action is required to reduce intergenerational consequences. Greenhouse gas emissions released by thawing permafrost are already on the same level as the annual emissions of Japan, and they will continue to rise unless human emissions are reduced. Much of the current thaw in the permafrost domain is occurring decades earlier than predicted. Curbing global temperature rise by halting human CO2 emissions will reduce the long-term impact of permafrost thaw on the environment and human communities; and it will provide future generations with the time necessary to adapt to these changing landscapes.
Permafrost carries deep ecological and cultural significance for many communities. Though permafrost is distributed across a tenth of the globe, it constitutes more than half of all remaining wilderness. The stability of permafrost is crucial to preserving such biosphere integrity. In addition, nearly one fourth of the northern permafrost region is vulnerable to rapid collapse, a type of erosion that triggers more rapid greenhouse gas release; and damages human infrastructure and wildlife habitats. Rapid reduction of fossil fuel emissions and empowerment of local communities are needed to meaningfully conserve permafrost ecosystems.
There are no “miracle cures” to protect permafrost habitats and the global climate system. The release of greenhouse gas from permafrost produces some of the largest destabilizing climate feedbacks in the world. Rapidly reducing human CO2 emissions, and drawing down atmospheric CO2 comprise the only proven ways to protect the permafrost domain. The paper authors state bluntly that there are no miracle solutions that will allow us to continue burning fossil fuels while preserving permafrost globally. With today’s already-existing technologies for rapid decarbonization, it is fully possible to remain within the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement; and thereby prevent widespread destruction of the permafrost domain and resulting global consequences.
Authors of this consensus review paper underscore the importance of rapidly lowering emissions to preserve permafrost and thereby defend human rights, biosphere integrity, and the global climate.
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2022.889428/full
By Science Writing Intern Haily Landrigan, Global Outreach Director Amy Imdieke, and ICCI Director Pam Pearson.
Published Sep. 2, 2022 Updated Sep. 2, 2022 8:27 pm