Water Resources Research, 9 February 2026
Glaciers in the Tien Shan mountains of Asia are projected to rapidly shrink this century, with one-third of their 2020 ice volume expected to disappear before 2040 and two-thirds by 2100 even under low emissions. Nearly all (93%) ice will however be lost this century if today’s very high emissions continue. Runoff from glacier areas is projected to rise by nearly one-fourth compared to recent decades, peaking before 2050, then declining rapidly by end of century. This decrease is most concerning in summer, when glaciers currently provide up to 45% of total mountain water runoff and water demand is highest. By late century, summer glacier runoff is projected to decrease by as much as 55% in August, weakening as runoff shifts earlier into spring. As a result, the probability that summer water demand cannot be met increases substantially, especially in heavily glaciated basins, where unmet demand rises 30-70% by 2100 depending on the emissions scenario. Such high glacier loss will significantly reduce reliable summer water supplies in the Tien Shan as snowpack and ice thin before completely disappearing.
作者：科学写作实习生 海莉·兰德里根, 全球外展主任 艾, 以及 ICCI 主任 帕姆·皮尔森.
Published 2 月. 20, 2026 Updated 2 月. 20, 2026 11:39 下午