AGU, July 21, 2020 Earth’s global “climate sensitivity” to CO2 emissions remains a fundamental question in predicting the future climate. Until now, scientists relied on a 1979 estimate of 1.5‐4.5°C per doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (assuming no other climate forcing). For the first time in 40 years, this consensus report – part of preparation […]
Global Methane Budget, 2000-2017 (2020), July 15, 2020. A new consensus update to global methane emissions reveals that atmospheric methane increased by 8.5ppb and 10.7ppb in 2018 and 2019, respectively – two of the highest annual values of the 21st century. The current concentration of atmospheric methane is more than 2.5 times higher than pre-industrial […]
Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, WMO, July 9, 2020. A new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) finds a ~70% chance that global mean temperature will rise 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one month within the next 5 years. This projection does not necessarily mean that the 1.5°C limit will have […]
2020年对北极来说是异常炎热的一年，尤其是在俄罗斯北部高纬度地区。从1月份开始，一股持续的持续热浪打破了纪录，在6月份达到38摄氏度（100.4华氏度）的峰值。从那以后，极端高温持续不断。例如，西伯利亚的俄罗斯城镇维尔霍扬斯克已经经历了11天以上……
PNAS December 10: Models Show Abrupt Transition of Climate to Past Geologic States Main Messages: Already in 2030, Earth’s climate will approach that of the mid-Pliocene (-3 million years) if current emissions levels continue unabated, eg RCP8.5 through 2030. Pliocene (–3 million), temps 2.8°-4.6° above pre-industrial, with 20+ m. SLR If emissions continue on an […]
Note: ICCI often gets questions about the unusually cold weather that occasionally has begun to hit sub-Arctic Europe and North America. Below in brief is an explanation and direction to other resources and articles: The so-called “polar vortex” is a regular upper-atmosphere phenomenon that normally, stays centered over the North Pole. It comprises very high-level […]
May IceBlog: Anything But Pro Forma Note: Statements at Arctic Council ministerial meetings are often very pro-forma. The May 11 statement in Fairbanks by Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallström was anything but — instead it was a call to science-based, and economics-based, action: Excellencies, colleagues, Arctic friends, it is truly a great pleasure to be […]
ICCI’s hallmark is a deep belief in the power of solid science to convince policymakers and decision makers to change course before climate change overtakes us all. Not all leaders, and not all at once — but enough to make a difference. We have been spreading the increasingly-clear message from the cryosphere (snow and ice) […]
“These people know nothing! Nothing!” This outburst from an eminent Antarctic researcher was as unexpected for me as it was emphatic. It came just outside a seminar during one of the climate negotiating sessions before Copenhagen, where I thought the negotiators present (many former colleagues, known from my own years in diplomacy) had asked intelligent […]
Fire in the Fields – “Burning” the Cryosphere “Open burning” refers to a common agricultural practice found today throughout the world: the regular and periodic burning of lands, supposedly cheaply and quickly to remove excess vegetation. This may be crop residue such as straw, weeds, lands to be cleared, or in forestry understory prior to […]
What Happens in the Arctic…. As world leaders, including President Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry and a number of foreign ministers, head to Alaska this weekend to discuss the threat of climate change in the Arctic (and ICCI will be there, with our European Director Dr. Svante Bodin addressing the ministers on black carbon), […]
Explaining Climate: What Rockström Said! Sometimes in the struggle to convey the seriousness and, above all, the immediacy of the threat of climate change, one runs across a speaker or writer that simply causes the reaction, “what he said!” This was definitely the case for me on July 12 in Sweden when Johan Rockström, former […]
The “Road to Paris” Goes through Cryosphere With the Bonn UNFCCC climate negotiations taking place next month, the phrase “road to Paris” is the theme of countless policy forums and media coverage. For ICCI, that “road” focuses on cryosphere – but increasingly, science is telling us that any path towards a new climate agreement in […]
Summer Forecast: Hot, with Frequent Fires Sometimes ICCI gets the question of how open field and forest burning, seeming quite far from the Arctic or other regions, can have such an impact at higher latitudes (or in the Himalayas, Andes or other mountain regions, on mountain glaciers and snowpack). One explanation, of course, is the […]
Conservation Agriculture: Conserving Cryosphere “The soil does not belong to me, it belongs to every living thing on this planet.” Conservation agriculture pioneer and author Carlos Crovetto, Chequen Farm, in the Andean foothills of the Concepción region of Chile. I recently have become a lurker at agricultural conferences, examining direct-seed farm equipment, cover crop opportunities […]